Walker Buehler is a San Diego Padres SP projected for 246 fantasy points on 161 IP, 137 K, 4.6 ERA, 1.340 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 8% and a bust at 12%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-10-25. Rebuilt daily.
Walker Buehler's 2026 projection is built on 161 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 8 seasons with meaningful innings, Buehler's biggest strikeout year came in 2019 at age 24: 215 strikeouts over 182 innings, with 14 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 75, 126 and 154, a rising workload.
In 2026, Buehler's 4.63 ERA sat close to a 4.30 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2026: Buehler struck out 20.1% of batters and walked 8.8%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 11.3 points, and hitters missed on 19.5% of their swings. Contact against Buehler averaged 89.3 mph off the bat, with an 8.4% barrel rate.
Buehler's projected range runs from a 233-point floor to a 394-point upside, around a 246-point median: a spread of 161 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Buehler on the board are Andrew Abbott, Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael King.
At 31, Buehler is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-10-25 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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