Gage Jump is a Athletics SP projected for 131 fantasy points on 102.9 IP, 113 K, 5.4 ERA, 1.519 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 1% and a bust at 17%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-10-25. Rebuilt daily.
Gage Jump's 2026 projection is built on 103 innings as a starter.
Jump's one season with meaningful innings came in 2026 at age 23: 99 innings with 108 strikeouts. A single season is a thin base for a projection.
In 2026, Jump's 5.47 ERA ran above a 4.63 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: Jump struck out 24.7% of batters and walked 10.5%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 14.2 points, and hitters missed on 25.2% of their swings. Contact against Jump averaged 89.6 mph off the bat, with a 6.8% barrel rate.
Jump's projected range runs from a 124-point floor to a 259-point upside, around a 131-point median: a spread of 135 points, or 103% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Jump on the board are Brandon Sproat, Andrew Painter and Roki Sasaki.
At 23, Jump is early in the typical pitcher development arc, and the multi-year valuation adds weight for expected growth.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-10-25 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
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