Articles

The research behind the rankings: 25 articles on what was tested, what works and what does not, followed by the latest edition of each daily report.

Research and analysis

• MLB-D23 Part 1 — neither surface is close. The zero-volume healthy class realizes about 5% of a healthy comparable, and the ROS column is the less wrong of the two by exactly the disputed fraction 2026-09-13
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• MLB-C3: Sell High carries no measurable information, on a panel too small to settle it 2026-08-25
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• We Tested Buy Low and Sell High. Both Failed. 2026-08-05
  The two most repeated pieces of fantasy advice, tested against 1,704 hitter seasons. Neither one held up, and the popular version was the worst rule we measured.
• What a Prospect Grade Is Actually Worth 2026-08-05
  FV 60 is roughly a one in four shot at a fantasy star. FV 45 is one in twenty five. The full ladder, with the sample sizes.
• We Tried to Optimize Our Minor League Prospect Model. Guessing Beat It. 2026-08-02
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• What Doesn't Work 2026-08-02
  Six signals that sound like edges, tested on seasons the model had never seen, and failed. Publishing the nulls is the only way the wins mean anything.
• How to Read a Ranking Disagreement 2026-08-02
  A reader compared our dynasty starters to another public board and concluded we back proven production harder than the market. Under the full join, the conclusion flipped.
• The age curve carries no signal, but removing it only reaches parity with raw rank 2026-08-01
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• Deleting the hitter age curve reorders the board far past the frozen bounds 2026-08-01
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• Tommy John Takes 226 Days and a Concussion Takes 11. Neither Fact Helped Us Project a Single Player. 2026-07-31
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• We Fixed Where Lineup Slot Comes From. It Made Our Projections Worse. 2026-07-30
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• The Rankings Bug We Found, Measured, and Then Refused to Fix 2026-07-30
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• Does pitch SHAPE predict the model's error? 2026-07-27
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• Should Your Pitcher Inherit the Defense Behind Him? We Tested It, and the Answer Got Complicated 2026-07-27
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• Two Corrections Fighting Each Other: What We Found Inside Our Pitcher ERA-Luck Math 2026-07-27
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• We Thought Our Model Was Paying Ex-Closers for Saves They'll Never Get. We Were Wrong, and the Way We Were Wrong Matters 2026-07-27
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• Your Projections Trust Batting Average Four Times More Than They Should 2026-07-27
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• The Innings Formula That Never Ran, And Why We Left It Broken 2026-07-27
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• The Fix That Made Our Projections More Accurate and Our Rankings Worse 2026-07-27
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• Grant Taylor: why #1 dynasty closer, and is it too high? 2026-07-24
  We tested it, it did not survive the evidence, and the projections did not change. Here is the whole result, including what it does not prove.
• What a Top-100 Prospect Rank Is Actually Worth 2026-07-10
  We graded 850 top-100 rankings from 2011 to 2019 against seven years of real fantasy production. The results changed how our Prospect Value board works.
• Caglianone vs Eldridge: Who Ya Got? 2026-07-07
  Two breakout rookie sluggers, nearly identical on paper. Plate discipline and league format are how you separate them.
• League Winners: Who Actually Wins Your Title 2026-07-06
  Projected points tell you who scores the most. League-Winning Score tells you who wins you the league. They are not the same list.
• The 23-and-Under Wave 2026-07-05
  The 2026 youth movement is deeper than two names. A look at the young bats producing right now, and the contact quality behind them.
• Buy Low: The Model's Biggest Market Edges 2026-07-04
  Where Managr sees more value than the market. The players to target, and the stars you should not let anyone talk you out of.

Latest daily reports

• Where We Disagree, October 12 2026-10-12
  0 players we rank far above the consensus, 55 we rank far below.
• Injury Report, October 11 2026-10-11
  4 ranked players had an injury reported in the last day.
• Dynasty Disagreements, October 10 2026-10-10
  10 players we rank far above the dynasty consensus, 10 far below.
• Demotions and DFAs, October 10 2026-10-10
  3 ranked players sent down or designated in the last 3 days.